Bay Space coronavirus case will improve point to a surge. Different metrics paint a more nuanced advise – SF Gate

By Eric Ting, SFGATE

As a lot as this point

  • Nurses rush to meet with a patient that his being admitted to the emergency room at Regional Medical Center on May 21, 2020 in San Jose, California. Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images / 2020 Getty Images

    Nurses lunge to meet with a affected person that his being admitted to the emergency room at Regional Scientific Heart on Can also 21, 2020 in San Jose, California.

    Nurses lunge to meet with a affected person that his being admitted to the emergency room at Regional Scientific Heart on Can also 21, 2020 in San Jose, California.

    Portray: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Portray: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Nurses lunge to meet with a affected person that his being admitted to the emergency room at Regional Scientific Heart on Can also 21, 2020 in San Jose, California.

Nurses lunge to meet with a affected person that his being admitted to the emergency room at Regional Scientific Heart on Can also 21, 2020 in San Jose, California.

Portray: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the San Francisco Bay Space continues to climb, and in some counties, the case rely has accelerated or “spiked” all over the last two weeks.

While the rising case numbers indulge in been a source of dread for some, case counts alone are no longer the most practical likely metric for measuring spread.

“The most practical likely thing to seek for at is case counts, which just is just not any longer a excellent metric since you will need to component in elevated finding out,” UCSF epidemiologist Dr. George Rutherford told SFGATE earlier this week. “We’re finding more asymptomatic cases now, so it be no longer exactly resembling March and April, when most detected cases had been symptomatic. Now in Can also and June, we’re catching more asymptomatic cases so it would per chance maybe well furthermore be onerous to tell since we’re finding more infections.”

Rutherford believes that as a lot as 60% of infections are either asymptomatic or so subtle an particular particular person does no longer teach to acquire examined — meaning that elevated finding out will yield more confirmed cases at the same time as you occur to expand finding out to be out there to anybody in spite of symptoms. Thanks to enhanced finding out capabilities, Rutherford believes hospitalizations and p.c positivity of exams are the most practical likely metrics to make exercise of when measuring spread.

Right here is where the nine Bay Space counties stand on hospitalizations and p.c definite test rates when the usage of recordsdata from Can also 25 to June 8. Can also 25 is the Monday of the week case will improve started to hasten up, and there might be on the entire a one-to-two week breeze between an infection and hospitalization. All recordsdata comes from particular particular person county web sites and the affirm’s database for county-by-county hospitalizations.

San Francisco (2,809 confirmed cases)

Seven-day reasonable for hospitalizations on Can also 25: 56.6 sufferers

Seven-day reasonable for hospitalizations on June 8: 39 sufferers

Seven-day reasonable for p.c definite test rate on Can also 25: 2.9 p.c

Seven-day reasonable for p.c definite test rate on June 8: 1.6 p.c

San Mateo (2,475 confirmed cases)

Seven-day reasonable for hospitalizations on Can also 25: 60.9 sufferers

Seven-day reasonable for hospitalizations on June 8: 55.1 sufferers

Seven-day reasonable for p.c definite test rate on Can also 25: 4.6 p.c

Seven-day reasonable for p.c definite test rate on June 8: 3.5 p.c

Alameda (4,033 confirmed cases)

Seven-day reasonable for hospitalizations on Can also 25: 82.7 sufferers

Seven-day reasonable for hospitalizations on June 8: 87.4 sufferers

NOTE: Alameda does no longer document the on daily basis p.c definite test rate, totally cumulative finding out recordsdata.

Contra Costa (1,798 confirmed cases)

Seven-day reasonable for hospitalizations on Can also 25: 13 sufferers

Seven-day reasonable for hospitalizations on June 8: 17 sufferers

Seven-day reasonable for p.c definite test rate on Can also 25: 2 p.c

Seven-day reasonable for p.c definite test rate on June 8: 4.7 p.c

Santa Clara (3,017 confirmed cases)

Seven-day reasonable for hospitalizations on Can also 25: 72.9 sufferers

Seven-day reasonable for hospitalizations on June 8: 65.6 sufferers

Seven-day reasonable for p.c definite test rate on Can also 25: 1.2 p.c

Seven-day reasonable for p.c definite test rate on June 8: 1.5 p.c

Marin (635 confirmed cases)

Seven-day reasonable for hospitalizations on Can also 25: 3.1 sufferers

Seven-day reasonable for hospitalizations on June 8: 1.7 sufferers

Seven-day reasonable for p.c definite test rate on Can also 25: 4.2 p.c

Seven-day reasonable for p.c definite test rate on June 5*: 4.5 p.c

*Marin County’s finding out recordsdata totally goes as a lot as June 5.

Solano (610 confirmed cases)

Seven-day reasonable for hospitalizations on Can also 25: 42.9 sufferers

Seven-day reasonable for hospitalizations on June 8: 29.3 sufferers

NOTE: Solano does no longer document the on daily basis p.c definite test rate, totally cumulative finding out recordsdata.

Napa (157 confirmed cases)

Seven-day reasonable for hospitalizations on Can also 25: 2.1 sufferers

Seven-day reasonable for hospitalizations on June 8: 2.7 sufferers

NOTE: Napa does no longer document the on daily basis p.c definite test rate, totally cumulative finding out recordsdata.

Sonoma (671 confirmed cases)

Seven-day reasonable for hospitalizations on Can also 25: 13.4 sufferers

Seven-day reasonable for hospitalizations on June 8: 13.6 sufferers

NOTE: Sonoma does no longer document the on daily basis p.c definite test rate.

The totally Bay Space county that saw a confirmed lengthen in both hospitalizations and the proportion of definite exams is Contra Costa County, nonetheless both will improve are marginal at most practical likely when when put next with varied areas in the country seeing a rebound in infections. One such instance is Arizona, where the p.c definite test rate has elevated from nine p.c on Can also 24 to 25 p.c on June 7.

MORE CORONAVIRUS COVERAGE:

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Eric Ting is an SFGATE digital reporter. Electronic mail: eric.ting@sfgate.com | Twitter: @_ericting

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